Topics / Impacts & Risks / Risk Analysis

Risk Analysis

Reports
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Analysis
Australian Climate & Security Risk Assessment
Proposal to establish an urgent, independent Australian climate and security risk assessment framework.
Risk Analysis Policymaking Human Security
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Analysis
Degrees of Risk
Financial systems risk collapse as climate models ignore cascading impacts of 3°C warming and systemic instability.
Economics Finance Climate Science Risk Analysis Future Warming
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Analysis
Fatal Calculations
Climate economics has consistently downplayed future climate damage and risk.
Economics Finance Risk Analysis Future Warming Policymaking Food & Water
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Analysis
Climate Emergency Defined
A focused assessment of whether climate risks now justify an emergency response.
Economics Mobilisation Risk Analysis Policymaking
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Analysis
What Lies Beneath
Mainstream climate assessments downplay extreme risks—this report calls for urgent, large-scale, emergency-level climate action.
Climate Science Risk Analysis Scientific Reticence Ice Melt Policymaking Tipping Points
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Analysis
Disaster Alley
Climate change has become a major catalyst for global conflict, social unrest, and humanitarian breakdown.
Risk Analysis Impacts Climate Extremes Sea Levels Food & Water Human Security
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Analysis
Recount
The 2°C limit is dangerously inadequate; irreversible tipping points are already triggered, leaving no carbon budget to prevent catastrophic impacts.
Climate Science Goals & Targets Risk Analysis Advocacy
Papers
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Analysis
Understanding Climate Risk
Policymakers and scientific institutions like the IPCC place too much emphasis on middle-of-the-road probability estimates rather than plausible worst-case outcomes.
Economics Risk Analysis Policymaking Tipping Points
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Analysis
Is Scientific Reticence Hindering Climate Understanding?
Climate impacts are happening faster than predicted, yet scientific caution and underestimation of risks are slowing public understanding and policymaking.
Climate Science Risk Analysis Scientific Reticence Politics Policymaking
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Analysis
Testing Climate Preparedness
Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) process ignores global-scale existential and systemic climate risks.
Risk Analysis Scientific Reticence Politics Human Security
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Analysis
Australia's Climate Security Risk Assessment
Australia’s first climate security assessment highlights urgent threats, but government refuses to release full findings.
Risk Analysis Politics Food & Water Human Security
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Analysis
Reclaiming “Climate Emergency”
How should the term “climate emergency” be understood?
Decarbonisation Economics Mobilisation Risk Analysis Advocacy Targets Politics Policymaking
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Analysis
Carbon Budgets For 1.5 & 2°C
Current carbon budgets underestimate warming by ignoring feedbacks and risky assumptions about climate system behavior.
Climate Science Risk Analysis Targets Policymaking
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Analysis
COVID-19 Climate Lessons
COVID-19 revealed global unpreparedness; climate disruption demands urgent, science-based leadership and coordinated risk management action.
Mobilisation Risk Analysis Politics Policymaking
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Analysis
The Third Degree
Australia and the world face catastrophic risks from 3°C warming; leadership denial leaves society dangerously unprepared for collapse.
Risk Analysis Climate Extremes Future Warming Tipping Points Food & Water Health Human Security
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Analysis
Existential Climate-Related Security Risk
Climate change poses an existential threat; urgent, wartime-scale action is needed to prevent profound security consequences.
Risk Analysis Impacts Climate Extremes Future Warming Human Security
Articles
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Insights
Could Four Billion People Die at 3°C?
Every 1,000 tonnes of fossil carbon burned may result in one future premature death.
Impacts & Risks Risk Analysis Climate Extremes Food & Water Health Human Security
TOPSHOT - This picture taken on December 4, 2019 shows a passenger aircraft flying across the setting sun in Sydney, as smoke haze continues to hang over the city with more than 50 bushfires still burning across New South Wales. - Australian authorities on December 5 said the toxic smoke that has enshrouded Sydney for much of November is unprecedented, as residents donned masks and cranked air conditioners in the hope of respite. (Photo by Saeed KHAN / AFP) (Photo by SAEED KHAN/AFP via Getty Images)
Insights
In the Burning Days
Northern Australia faces escalating climate risk amid defence and fossil expansion.
Energy Risk Analysis Impacts Human Security
FUNAFUTI, TUVALU - NOVEMBER 28: Suega Apelu stands in the lagoon on November 28, 2019 in Funafuti, Tuvalu. The low-lying South Pacific island nation of about 11,000 people has been classified as ‘extremely vulnerable’ to climate change by the United Nations Development Programme. The world’s fourth-smallest country is struggling to cope with climate change related impacts including five millimeter per year sea level rise (above the global average), tidal and wave driven flooding, storm surges, rising temperatures, saltwater intrusion and coastal erosion on its nine coral atolls and islands, the highest of which rises about 15 feet above sea level. In addition, the severity of cyclones and droughts in the Pacific Island region are forecast to increase due to global warming. Some scientists have predicted that Tuvalu could become inundated and uninhabitable in 50 to 100 years or less if sea level rise continues. The country is working toward a goal of 100 percent renewable power generation by 2025 in an effort to curb pollution and set an example for larger nations. Tuvalu is also exploring a plan to build an artificial island. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Insights
Ignoring Tipping-Point Risks
Assessment understates catastrophic sea-level risks, leaving communities exposed and unprepared.
Risk Analysis Sea Levels Tipping Points
6 year-old Ariella (top) and her 3 year-old sister Romy enjoy an early morning swing amid a dust storm in Balmain, Sydney, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2009. The dust, which blanketed the city, is being blown by strong winds from dry farm land in western and southern parts of NSW and eastern South Australia. (AAP Image/Dan Peled) NO ARCHIVING, INTL OUT
Insights
Australia’s First Climate Risk Assessment, Long Overdue
Australia has never had a comprehensive climate risk assessment. It has been a glaring omission.
Risk Analysis Politics Human Security
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Insights
Too Hot Classified
The Albanese Government withheld a classified climate-security report, selectively briefed MPs, and delayed action amid rising risks.
Risk Analysis Politics Human Security
Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (2nd L) walks upon his arrival at Halim Perdanakusuma International Airport in Jakarta on May 14, 2025, on his first overseas visit after being re-elected. (Photo by YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP) (Photo by YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images)
Insights
Our National Security Blindspot
The Albanese Government's climate risk assessment is delayed, while critical climate-security risks remain hidden.
Risk Analysis Politics Human Security
A girl looks at rising floodwaters of the Bremer river in West Ipswich, Australia's Queensland state on February 26, 2022. (Photo by Patrick HAMILTON / AFP) (Photo by PATRICK HAMILTON/AFP /AFP via Getty Images)
Insights
A Climate Duty of Care
Governments must uphold fiduciary duties, protecting citizens from climate risks and ensuring long-term stability and well-being.
Risk Analysis Politics
TOPSHOT - A photo shows flood damages in the Windsor and Pitt Town areas along the Hawkesbury River area of Greater Sydney on March 24, 2021. (Photo by LUKAS COCH / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
Insights
Going Under Despite the Warnings
High-end possibilities create the greatest damage, so why don't we understand them?
Climate Science Risk Analysis Tipping Points
CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA - MAY 14: Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese arrives at Parliament House on May 14, 2024 in Canberra, Australia. Australia's Labor government is grappling with a slowing economy, weaker commodity prices, soaring housing costs and a softening labor market as it prepares to unveil its federal budget on May 14. To counter these headwinds, the budget is expected to feature smaller revenue upgrades compared to recent years, while outlining the government's interventionist policies aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing and the transition to green energy. Critics warn that such industrial policies risk fueling inflation and diverting resources from more productive sectors of the economy. The budget is seen as a key opportunity for the Labor government to deliver broad economic support that analysts say is fundamental to re-election chances next year. (Photo by Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images)
Insights
Climate Security Left in the Dark
Concealing the intelligence analysis of climate threats is the opposite of good security policy governance.
Risk Analysis Politics Human Security
Podcasts
USA Podcast—5-100
Insights
Facing the World at 3°C
The catastrophic risks of a 3°C world and the urgent need for honest climate risk assessment and decisive leadership.
Decarbonisation Climate Science Risk Analysis Future Warming Politics Tipping Points Food & Water
Listen
USA Podcast—12-100
Insights
Cooling a Livable Planet
Outdated risk models and delayed action are pushing us toward dangerous climate thresholds.
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Listen
Projects
Latest Stock close-up photograph of a young Asian woman, pointing at, and learning from, global data displayed on a large computer monitor.
Advocacy
Climate Science Imperatives Project
Understanding the Climate Challenge and the Conditions for Safety
Climate Science Risk Analysis Impacts
Media
Media
Labor goes cold on hot climate threats
Promised domestic climate risk assessment missing in action as new report warns of 3°C warming catastrophe.
3 December 2024
Impacts & Risks Risk Analysis Politics Policymaking Human Security
Press
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Media
Is scientific reticence hindering climate understanding?
Scientific reticence is understating climate dangers, weakening public understanding and slowing responses proportionate to the threat.
12 March 2025
Climate Science Risk Analysis Impacts Climate Extremes
Contributors
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Adrian Hindes

Earth Systems Analyst and Researcher

Studies SRM, CDR, tipping points, risks, ethics, governance and impacts.

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David King

Climate Policy Analyst and Scientific Advisor

Former chief scientist advising governments on emissions, innovation and global climate governance.

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David Spratt

Research Director and Climate Analyst

Author examining existential threats, policy failures and urgent mitigation requirements globally.

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Ian Dunlop

Energy Expert and Strategic Advisor

Former executive advising decarbonisation, resource constraints and systemic economic transition risks.

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Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Climate Physicist and Policy Advisor

Leading scientist modelling Earth systems, tipping points and planetary boundaries and informing policy.

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Paul Gilding

Author & Corporate Advisor

Former executive advising business transformation, economic shifts and sustainability strategy implementation.

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