Future Warming
Reports
Climate-driven food insecurity threatens global stability; Australia must act urgently to assess and address escalating security risks.
With the planet already effectively at 1.5°C of warming—and no sign of emissions peaking—the world is now on a dangerous trajectory toward 3°C.
Financial systems risk collapse as climate models ignore cascading impacts of 3°C warming and systemic instability.
Warming beyond 1.5°C is imminent; only emergency-scale action can prevent catastrophic, irreversible, self-reinforcing climate impacts this century.
Climate economics has consistently downplayed future climate damage and risk.
Papers
Global warming has hit 1.5°C, but that is not safe. What does that mean for climate advocacy?
The evidence is clear: emissions are still rising, warming will exceeds 1.5°C by decade's end, and tipping points are accelerating, requiring urgent action.
Australia and the world face catastrophic risks from 3°C warming; leadership denial leaves society dangerously unprepared for collapse.
Climate change poses an existential threat; urgent, wartime-scale action is needed to prevent profound security consequences.
Articles
When global events collide, the consequences may be unprecedented
Media headlines say worst-case warming is fading. Evidence suggests dangerous heating remains.
A one-sided emphasis on adaptation distracts from decarbonisation focus.
Evidence this year shows 1.5°C has effectively been reached, 3°C is looming under current policies, and geoengineering is moving into the mainstream conversation.
Global temperatures have likely reached 1.5°C, with accelerating warming driven by rising CO2 levels.
Climate policy is failing to address rapid warming, risking extreme impacts and societal collapse.
2023 was a year of unprecedented heat, drought, and disaster.
Climate policy is failing to address rapid warming, risking extreme impacts and societal collapse.
Podcasts
AMOC instability, the risks of overshoot, and Emergency Briefings.
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The catastrophic risks of a 3°C world and the urgent need for honest climate risk assessment and decisive leadership.
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Exploring climate tipping points, 1.5°C, and why high-end risks must guide policy and security planning.
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Outdated risk models and delayed action are pushing us toward dangerous climate thresholds.
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Climate change is accelerating, creating urgent risks for ecosystems, human security, and the future.
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Press
A pioneer of the climate emergency movement and a powerful influence on environmental campaigners in Australia and internationally.
21 June 2022
Extreme weather could result in a complete societal breakdown by 2050.
5 June 2019
Contributors
David Spratt
Research Director and Climate Analyst
Author examining existential threats, policy failures and urgent mitigation requirements globally.