Tipping Points
Reports
With the planet already effectively at 1.5°C of warming, and no sign of emissions peaking, the world is now on a dangerous trajectory toward 3°C.
Australia’s climate-security response is dangerously inadequate, ignoring urgent scientific warnings and concealing key risk assessments.
Earth’s systems are showing significant signs of tipping into irreversible change.
Warming beyond 1.5°C is imminent; only emergency-scale action can prevent catastrophic, irreversible, self-reinforcing climate impacts this century.
Mainstream climate assessments downplay extreme risks—this report calls for urgent, large-scale, emergency-level climate action.
How Antarctica could contribute several metres of sea-level rise—far sooner than previously thought.
This urgent call for immediate climate action reshaped global approaches and framed climate change as an emergency.
Papers
Policymakers and scientific institutions like the IPCC place too much emphasis on middle-of-the-road probability estimates rather than plausible worst-case outcomes.
The evidence is clear: emissions are still rising, warming will exceeds 1.5°C by decade's end, and tipping points are accelerating, requiring urgent action.
Australia and the world face catastrophic risks from 3°C warming; leadership denial leaves society dangerously unprepared for collapse.
Articles
Media headlines say worst-case warming is fading. Evidence suggests dangerous heating remains.
Evidence this year shows 1.5°C has effectively been reached, 3°C is looming under current policies, and geoengineering is moving into the mainstream conversation.
Assessment understates catastrophic sea-level risks, leaving communities exposed and unprepared.
Global temperatures have likely reached 1.5°C, with accelerating warming driven by rising CO2 levels.
Accelerating warming creates urgent, systemic climate risks demanding unprecedented global action.
Current CO2 levels could cause a 60-meter sea-level rise, with devastating impacts and urgent climate action needed.
Global temperatures have likely reached 1.5°C, with accelerating warming driven by rising CO2 levels.
Climate policy is failing to address rapid warming, risking extreme impacts and societal collapse.
AMOC collapse threatens global food security, sea levels, and climate stability, with severe impacts on Australia.
High-end possibilities create the greatest damage, so why don't we understand them?
Climate policy is failing to address rapid warming, risking extreme impacts and societal collapse.
The Paris target is unsafe as major climate tipping points accelerate, demanding urgent global action.
Projects
Understanding Climate Risk and Strengthening Protection in an Era of Escalating Disruption
Events
ATLAS25 was organised to bridge scientific understanding on Earth System Tipping Points (ESTP)
9am—Thu 23 to 5pm—Tue 25 Nov 2025
Valkoinen sali (White Hall)
Valkoinen sali (White Hall)
Press
More than a billion people could be displaced by climate change by 2050, is that true?
6 June 2019
Extreme weather could result in a complete societal breakdown by 2050.
5 June 2019
Contributors
David Spratt
Research Director and Climate Analyst
Author examining existential threats, policy failures and urgent mitigation requirements globally.