Analysis / paper

Australia’s Climate Security Risk Assessment

What Does Australia’s First Climate and Security Risk Assessment Say?

Risk Analysis Politics Food & Water Human Security
By David Spratt
Thursday 10 August, 2023
Share

Australia’s first climate and security risk assessment is expected to reveal escalating threats to stability, but its release delay is limiting public awareness of rising climate-driven risks.

Paper Summary

  • The Office of National Intelligence’s climate-security risk assessment was received by the government in 2022, but remains unreleased publicly.

  • Global risks are compounding and worsening climate impacts.

  • The Asia-Pacific region faces state failures, and escalating political instability from climate stress.

  • Climate change fuels forced migration, conflict, and authoritarian political shifts.

  • Shared water resources will heighten tensions between India, China, and their neighbours.

Australia’s first climate and security risk assessment, completed by the Office of National Intelligence (ONI) in late 2022, highlights severe and compounding climate threats to national and regional stability. Despite its critical findings, the government has not released a declassified version, limiting public and policymaker awareness of the risks facing Australians.

The report likely warns that the world is far off track from meeting the Paris Agreement targets, with devastating impacts expected in coming decades. In the Asia-Pacific, climate change will exacerbate political instability, increase insecurity, drive forced migration, and heighten conflict risks, especially over vital shared water resources, while authoritarian politics and weakened regional cooperation may worsen these challenges.

There will likely be a further retreat to authoritarian and hyper-nationalist politics, the diminution of instruments of regional cooperation, and increased risks of regional conflict.

David Spratt
Research Director and Climate Analyst
SCA_BriefingPapersCovers_Resize.v3
paper

Australia's Climate Security Risk Assessment

Australia’s first climate security assessment highlights urgent threats, but government refuses to release full findings.

Risk Analysis Politics Food & Water Human Security
Download
Related Papers
SCA_GroupCovers.v1(2)

Stay informed!

Get access to our exclusive insights, reports and news.

About the Author

David Spratt

Research Director and Climate Analyst

Author examining existential threats, policy failures and urgent mitigation requirements globally.

View profile
More Analysis
SubmissionPaper_ClimateDisruption_Feature_660x660px.FA
Analysis
Climate disruption, not China, is the key security threat facing Australia
This submission argues climate disruption, not military rivalry, represents Australia’s greatest security risk, demanding a major rethink of AUKUS-era spending priorities.
Impacts & Risks Politics Policymaking Human Security
Popular SCA_BriefingPapersCovers_Resize.v3
Analysis
The Climate Disinformation War
Climate disinformation threatens democracy, demanding urgent national response.
Advocacy Politics Policymaking Dis/information
SCA_BriefingPapersCovers_Resize.v3
Analysis
Silence Facilitates Disinformation
Government misses an obvious climate moment during extreme weather crisis.
Advocacy Politics Dis/information
SCA_BriefingPapersCovers_Resize.v1
Analysis
Understanding Climate Risk
Policymakers and scientific institutions like the IPCC place too much emphasis on middle-of-the-road probability estimates rather than plausible worst-case outcomes.
Economics Risk Analysis Policymaking Tipping Points

Before You Dive In!

The climate emergency is accelerating — and so is the need for clear thinking, trusted analysis and effective action. Safe Climate Australia takes a clear-eyed look at the realities of the climate crisis, confronting the scale of the risks to help advocates better understand the challenge and the responses required for potection.

Sign up to receive ongoing analysis and insights on impacts, risks and responses that match the climate reality.

Sign up

Giving you the download!

We know you’re here for the straight-up climate reality. We keep our work free, independent and focused on what the science and risks demand, made possible by people who back it.

Want to chip in before you read? If not, no drama—carry on!