Too Hot to Handle

Australia faces escalating climate threats, yet governments have failed to deliver the comprehensive, science-based security assessments needed to protect people, institutions and ecosystems from worsening climate-driven risks.

Failing to Assess the Greatest Threat

Australia’s climate–security failure stands as a critical concern, given the nation’s vulnerability as the hottest and driest inhabited continent. This report, from the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG), expresses deep frustration that such an intervention remains necessary.

ASLCG’s central concern is human security—protecting communities and the systems they depend on. Decades of scientific evidence now confirm that climate change is accelerating, already dangerous, and constitutes an existential threat on par with nuclear conflict. Australia’s geographic vulnerability as the hottest and driest inhabited continent heightens its exposure to this global emergency.

This report outlines a core failure in Australia’s climate-security response: the absence of a comprehensive, transparent risk assessment. Responsible security planning begins with understanding evolving threats through rigorous, science-based analysis. Yet in Australia, decades of toxic climate politics and a persistent prioritisation of fossil fuel interests have prevented such an assessment. Successive governments have neglected their fundamental duty to protect the population by failing to fully account for climate risk in policy.

While ASLCG welcomed the Albanese government’s post-2022 election commitment to conduct a national climate-security risk assessment, progress has been insufficient. Key failures include: the classification and concealment of the 2022 Office of National Intelligence (ONI) assessment on external climate risks; the marginalisation of climate in the Defence Strategic Review; limited treatment in the 2023 Intergenerational Report; and a flawed approach to the current National Climate Risk Assessment. Additional efforts—such as the forthcoming National Adaptation Plan and the Climate Risk and Opportunity Management Program—lack urgency and fail to acknowledge the full magnitude and immediacy of the risk.

This report not only critiques these shortcomings but also offers a clear framework for effective climate risk assessment, supported by case studies and actionable recommendations. ASLCG calls for urgent and transparent action, grounded in scientific realism, to safeguard Australia’s security against accelerating climate threats.