Analysis / paper

Testing Climate Preparedness

Is Australia's Risk Assessment Fit for Purpose?

Risk Analysis Scientific Reticence Politics Human Security
By David Spratt
Thursday 10 August, 2023
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Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment process overlooks global systemic risks, underestimates accelerating impacts, and ignores mitigation. This limits its effectiveness, prompting calls for a stronger, holistic approach.

Summary

  • Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) ignores global-scale existential and systemic climate risks.

  • Climate impacts occur faster than NCRA forecasts predict.

  • The NCRA underestimates risks and overlooks worst-case scenarios.

  • The assessment lacks consideration of mitigation options for future policies.

Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) lacks a comprehensive approach because it fails to first consider global-scale existential and systemic climate risks. Its narrow focus and outdated assumptions risk underestimating climate impacts, overlooking plausible worst-case scenarios, and missing the broader context of accelerating climate change.

As a result, the NCRA is unlikely to provide a reliable foundation for effective adaptation and resilience policies in Australia. Furthermore, by excluding mitigation strategies, it cannot fully support policy development aimed at securing Australia’s future. This briefing paper recommends pausing the NCRA for an independent expert review to ensure a more robust and holistic evaluation.

It is not possible to make a proper assessment of climate risks in Australia without first establishing an understanding of the systemic risks at a global scale.

David Spratt
Research Director and Climate Analyst
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Testing Climate Preparedness

Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) process ignores global-scale existential and systemic climate risks.

Risk Analysis Scientific Reticence Politics Human Security
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About the Author

David Spratt

Research Director and Climate Analyst

Author examining existential threats, policy failures and urgent mitigation requirements globally.

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