Australian Climate & Security Risk Assessment

The Case for a National Climate Security Assessment

The urgent need for a dedicated Australian climate and security risk assessment reflects the reality that climate disruption, alongside nuclear war, constitutes an existential threat. This proposal outlines that Australia has never conducted a comprehensive climate-specific security assessment and that such an exercise is essential to underpin credible national security and foreign policy. This proposal argues that the assessment should be initiated immediately and completed within the government’s first year to inform a coordinated, whole-of-government response.

This proposal emphasises that existential climate risks require a shift from conventional risk management toward analysis of plausible worst-case scenarios and prevention-focused planning. It calls for a holistic, systems-based methodology that accounts for intensifying impacts, tipping points, cascading consequences and deep uncertainty. Existing international frameworks — such as the Chatham House Climate Change Risk Assessment 2021 — provide a methodological foundation that can be adapted for Australia and the region.

Implementation should be led by an independent, well-resourced Expert Panel rather than an internal interdepartmental process. The work would comprise two integrated streams: updated climate science and impact analysis, followed by security risk assessment. Beyond the initial review, the proposal recommends establishing ongoing national climate risk assessment processes and developing full-spectrum climate security intelligence capability to ensure preparedness in an era of escalating systemic risk.