Climate disruption, not China, is the key security threat facing Australia
Why climate belongs at the centre of security
Paper Summary
This submission argues that Australia’s security priorities are dangerously misaligned, with the AUKUS agreement and military preparedness focused on China while the far greater long-term threat — accelerating climate disruption — is being under-prioritised. It contends that climate change represents the most significant threat to Australians’ future safety, economic stability, food security, regional stability and national resilience. Drawing on global risk assessments, climate-security research and Australia’s own suppressed climate-security intelligence, the submission argues that worsening climate impacts, including extreme heat, food insecurity, displacement and regional instability, will create profound security risks across the Indo-Pacific. It calls for a reorientation of national security policy toward catastrophic risk assessment, regular climate-security analysis, stronger climate science capacity, and a comprehensive national security strategy grounded in the realities of climate disruption rather than military acquisition priorities alone.
System-level change and tipping points are happening faster than forecast, with a number of crucial climate system elements already passed tipping at the current level of warming. Risks are cascading, non-linear and underestimated; prudent risk management requires consideration of the bad-to-worst-case-scenarios.
paper
Climate disruption, not China, is the key security threat facing Australia
This submission argues climate disruption, not military rivalry, represents Australia’s greatest security risk, demanding a major rethink of AUKUS-era spending priorities.
About the Author
David Spratt
Research Director and Climate Analyst
Author examining existential threats, policy failures and urgent mitigation requirements globally.
