Searching for climate action’s missing goal
A credible climate goal means restoring a safe climate for protection
Summary
- 1.5°C is not considered safe; it represents political compromise rather than maximum protection.
- Scientists argue atmospheric CO₂ should return toward roughly 280–350 parts per million.
- Multiple critical Earth systems are already approaching or crossing dangerous tipping points.
- Emissions cuts alone are insufficient; carbon removal and climate interventions are also required.
- Climate goals should protect all people, species and ecosystems, not manage acceptable damage.
The conventional 1.5°C climate goal is no longer presented as an adequate or genuinely safe objective. Rather, 1.5°C is characterised as a political threshold rather than a scientifically grounded level of maximum protection, with dangerous climate impacts and abrupt Earth-system changes already occurring around present warming levels.
A safer long-term objective would involve restoring atmospheric carbon dioxide substantially below current levels. Scientific arguments cited in the analysis point to concentrations below 350 ppm, potentially approaching the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm, to better protect ice sheets, coastlines, ecosystems and human settlements from long-term instability and major sea-level rise.
This leads to a broader climate strategy built around three complementary levers: rapid emissions reduction, atmospheric carbon removal, and research and testing of interventions capable of protecting critical Earth systems. The underlying policy proposition is that climate strategy should pursue maximum protection for people, species and future generations, rather than define an acceptable level of damage.
Current climate policymaking and advocacy goals are outdated and unsafe, and represent a political compromise, not a scientifically sound normative goal.
paper
Searching for climate action’s missing goal
1.5°C should be treated as a risk threshold, not an endpoint.
About the Author
David Spratt
Research Director and Climate Analyst
Author examining existential threats, policy failures and urgent mitigation requirements globally.
