Heat to Hunger

Climate, Hunger, and Conflict

The growing threat climate change poses to global and regional food security carries profound implications for human wellbeing and national security. This report highlights how global food demand is projected to rise by 50% by 2050, while climate impacts—such as increased droughts, crop failures, and extreme weather—will significantly reduce food production. Chatham House warns that without immediate emissions reductions, crop yields could fall by 30% by 2050, and severe drought could affect nearly a third of cropland annually. By 2040, around 700 million people may endure droughts lasting six months or more each year.

This convergence of climate stressors will drive political instability and conflict, especially across the Asia–Pacific region, with serious consequences for Australia’s human and economic security. Yet Australia is unprepared. Its capacity to assess food and climate-related security risks is insufficient, and national planning does not yet reflect the urgency of the threat.

The report calls for a comprehensive national Climate and Security Risk Assessment, the creation of an Office of Climate Threat Intelligence, and the development of a “Prevent. Prepare. Protect.” Climate-Security Action Plan. Australia must also strengthen regional food resilience, cut emissions rapidly, and review its domestic food system to safeguard national security in a hotter world.