Antarctic Tipping Points

New evidence shows that parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have already passed a tipping point, with unstoppable ice loss underway. And East Antarctica is also vulnerable. This analysis reveals how Antarctica could contribute several metres of sea-level rise—far sooner than previously thought.

The Antarctic Collapse Risk

The accelerating disintegration of the Antarctic ice sheets presents profound and escalating risks for global sea levels. This report examines the looming consequences, drawing on recent scientific studies and satellite observations to reveal that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)—once considered stable—has already passed a critical tipping point.

Glaciers are discharging ice at an increasing pace, and warming conditions now mirror those forecast decades ago by glaciologist John Mercer, whose once-dismissed predictions are proving disturbingly accurate. Scientists now warn that the collapse of WAIS is not a matter of if, but when, with up to five metres of sea-level rise likely over the next two centuries.

Even the much larger East Antarctic Ice Sheet, long seen as more resilient, is showing signs of vulnerability, with some glaciers exhibiting similar destabilising behaviours. The report warns that the world could be locked in to tens of metres of sea-level rise over the longer term, with multi-metre rises this century possible under current conditions.

This report makes clear that the implications for coastal populations, cities, and national security are profound. It calls for urgent action to halt further warming and rethink global risk assessments, as sea-level rise driven by Antarctic collapse moves from possibility to inevitability.