Climate & Security
Understanding Climate Risk and Strengthening Protection in an Era of Escalating Disruption
The project is grounded in a recognition that climate change is no longer solely an environmental issue. It is increasingly a national resilience, economic stability, infrastructure, health, food, water and security challenge with the potential to reshape societies and destabilise regions.
Many climate impacts are now unfolding faster, with greater severity and at lower levels of warming than anticipated. Heatwaves, fires, floods, biodiversity loss, agricultural disruption, infrastructure failures and insurance pressures are increasingly affecting communities and economies. At the same time, scientific evidence suggests growing risks of abrupt climate shifts, tipping points and cascading disruptions capable of amplifying instability within and between nations.
Despite these risks, climate preparedness often remains fragmented, reactive and insufficiently aligned with the scale and speed of emerging threats. Long-term climate goals frequently dominate public discussion, while less attention is given to the immediate challenge of protecting societies during an era of intensifying disruption.
The Climate Risk, Security & National Preparedness Project seeks to address this gap.
At its core, the project asks:
What are the risks of climate disruption for Australia and the region — and what level of preparation and protection is required?
The project examines climate risks across multiple timescales, from immediate and near-term threats through to longer-term systemic destabilisation pathways. It investigates both direct impacts and the indirect consequences that may emerge through interconnected systems such as energy, water, food, supply chains, finance, public health, migration, social cohesion and regional stability.
Key areas of focus include:
Climate Impact & Risk Assessment
Assessing the likely impacts of escalating warming on ecosystems, infrastructure, public health, agriculture, water security, productivity, economic resilience and community wellbeing.
This includes examination of compound and cascading risks, low-probability high-consequence events, abrupt changes and climate tipping dynamics.
National Security & Strategic Stability
Exploring how climate disruption may affect geopolitical stability, regional security, defence readiness, displacement pressures, humanitarian demand, economic disruption and interstate tensions — particularly within the Indo-Pacific region.
The project examines the implications of climate disruption as a threat multiplier capable of exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and instability.
Critical Systems Resilience
Investigating risks to essential systems that underpin societal functioning, including energy, food, water, health systems, communications, transport networks, housing and emergency response capacity.
The project explores vulnerabilities, interdependencies and opportunities to strengthen resilience under worsening climate conditions.
Local Impact Fortification & Protection
Identifying measures capable of strengthening near-term protection for communities while broader climate stabilisation efforts proceed.
This may include heat preparedness, emergency response capability, public health measures, water security, food resilience, critical infrastructure adaptation and local resilience planning.
Climate Emergency Preparedness
Examining what emergency-scale preparedness and response may look like under conditions of escalating climate disruption.
This includes institutional capability, governance arrangements, national coordination mechanisms, contingency planning and the role of public communication during periods of heightened disruption.
Climate Risk Communication & Strategic Understanding
Improving understanding of climate risks among governments, institutions, businesses, civil society and the public.
The project seeks to strengthen risk literacy, improve the communication of uncertainty and help ensure that emerging threats are understood in proportion to their potential consequences.
The Climate Risk, Security & National Preparedness Project undertakes risk assessment, strategic analysis, expert consultation, commissioned research, scenario planning and contributor engagement to better understand the implications of escalating climate disruption.
Outputs may include major risk reports, climate-security assessments, strategic briefings, preparedness frameworks, expert dialogues, public education materials and contributor-led publications designed to improve understanding and strengthen institutional preparedness.
Importantly, this project recognises that even with rapid emissions elimination and large-scale atmospheric drawdown, significant climate disruption is already locked into the system. Societies will therefore require stronger preparedness and temporary protective measures while efforts to restore safe climate conditions progress.
The project does not seek to normalise climate disruption or replace the need for rapid prevention and restoration efforts. Rather, it recognises that responsible climate strategy must pursue both prevention and protection simultaneously.
The Climate Risk, Security & National Preparedness Project acts as a bridge between climate science and practical societal readiness. It is informed by the Climate Science Imperatives Project and closely connected to the Safe Climate Plan — particularly the mission focused on local impact fortification and resilience.
Ultimately, the project seeks to help answer a difficult but essential question:
How do we maximise protection for people and societies during an increasingly unstable climate future while working urgently to restore safety?
