Faster, Higher, Hotter

Greenhouse gas emissions are still rising fast, global warming will exceed 1.5°C by the decade’s end, and more system tipping point thresholds are at hand, necessitating urgent action to prevent catastrophic climate impacts.

This assessment outlines the urgent reality of the accelerating climate crisis. Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and may not peak until late this decade, pushing global temperatures beyond 1.5°C by the end of the 2020s. Current projections indicate that the planet is on track for 2°C of warming by mid-century, with no certainty that temperatures will stabilize at this level. Scenarios suggesting that warming could overshoot 1.5°C and then return to it by 2100 are based on speculative assumptions rather than reliable data.

The paper stresses that many climate system tipping points have already been breached at just 1.2°C of warming, and the risk of reaching 3°C or more is increasingly likely due to system feedbacks and cascading effects. These risks are non-linear and often underestimated, requiring more robust risk management strategies that account for worst-case scenarios. Immediate action to cool the planet is critical to prevent further feedback loops and avoid catastrophic, irreversible damage to the climate system.